The Rochdale byelection ought to have been a simple win for Labour. The late Sir Tony Lloyd served as a Labour member since 2017, with a majority of practically 10,000. And but the competition, triggered by Lloyd’s loss of life in January, descended into chaos and controversy.
Now, 9 years after his most up-to-date time period in parliament, the controversial former Labour and Respect MP George Galloway will signify the seat for his personal Workers’ Party of Britain.
In an all-male checklist of candidates, each the Labour Party and the Green Party withdrew help for his or her candidates following allegations of antisemitism and Islamophobia, respectively. On the poll paper, Azhar Ali nonetheless appeared because the Labour candidate and Guy Otten as Green as a result of it was too late to make any adjustments.
Labour’s resolution to withdraw its help for Ali got here after leaked recordings revealed him saying that the Israeli authorities knew prematurely concerning the assaults by Hamas on October 7 2023, and that they “intentionally took the safety off [to allow] that bloodbath that provides them the inexperienced gentle to do no matter they bloody need”.
By dropping Ali, Labour’s standing amongst Muslim voters, in Rochdale and past, took one other battering. Since the beginning of the battle in Gaza, Labour’s place on the battle has been seen as too lenient in direction of Israel by many Muslim voters and Labour Muslim politicians. Across the nation, greater than 60 Labour councillors have resigned in protest. In November 2023, 56 Labour MPs defied the celebration management to again the SNP’s name for an instantaneous ceasefire in Gaza.
The Rochdale byelection was the primary the place the problem of Gaza was explicitly raised on the marketing campaign path. Clearly, lots of the space’s Muslim voters (and others) used this opportunity to specific their anger. And Galloway, who stood on a platform of “For Rochdale. For Gaza”, did too.
Muslims make up 30% of Rochdale’s inhabitants. It is subsequently unsurprising that Galloway determined to courtroom this constituency in his bid to return as an MP. He efficiently received elections in east London and Bradford, each of which have vital Muslim South Asian electorates, and has lengthy advocated for the Palestinian trigger.
In 2009 he led the Viva Palestina convoy that travelled to Gaza to offer humanitarian help through the blockade of the strip. A later investigation by the Charity Commission discovered “little if any proof that humanitarian help was distributed to these in want” by Viva Palestina, though Galloway at all times disputed the inquiry’s findings.
Labour and the ‘Muslim vote’
There is not any such factor as a cohesive “Muslim vote” within the UK. For many years, Labour remained the celebration of alternative for a lot of British Muslims, however this had extra to do with different components together with class and race. The Muslim Council of Britain has, for a few years, inspired Muslims to vote and be a part of the political course of, however doesn’t again specific candidates or events.
Within Muslim communities, there’s typically a political divide between generations. Research has revealed widespread disillusionment with electoral politics, amongst younger Muslims within the UK.
Despite this, many stay politically engaged outdoors of formal elections, for instance via area people organisations, and calling for substantive illustration which addresses mainstream and infrequently nationwide political points. The older technology, in distinction, is seen as prioritising native points and illustration rather more intently tied to kinship and ethnic identification.
The Rochdale byelection outcome sends a message to Starmer to take Muslim voters’ issues critically.
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Despite these caveats concerning the absence of a Muslim vote, historical past reveals that Muslims will use the poll field to ship messages on each home and overseas coverage points. This occurred most famously within the 2005 normal election, when the Muslim protest vote towards the Iraq battle helped to swing a number of constituencies towards Labour. Many Labour MPs, together with the then overseas secretary Jack Straw, needed to struggle tooth and nail to retain supposedly “secure” seats.
The main upset in that election was George Galloway successful the seat of Bethnal Green and Bow in east London on the expense of Labour’s Oona King, who voted in favour of UK involvement within the Iraq battle. Galloway managed to overturn King’s majority of 10,057 by campaigning on an anti-war stance. Nearly 20 years later, Galloway has used one other battle in a distinct constituency with a major Muslim inhabitants to do the identical.
Looking to the overall election
In his acceptance speech, Galloway warned Starmer: “This is for Gaza. And you’ll pay a excessive worth, in enabling, encouraging and masking for, the disaster presently happening in occupied Palestine within the Gaza Strip.” In basic Galloway oratory, he declared “all of the plates have shifted tonight”, and that Labour has “misplaced the arrogance of hundreds of thousands of their voters”.
Concern about Labour shedding votes from its Muslim electors shouldn’t be overstated. Opinion polls nonetheless report the celebration’s help as excessive – and through a normal election voters are much less more likely to vote on a single challenge.
Still, Labour will now concern shedding floor to unbiased candidates standing in constituencies with vital numbers of Muslim voters, particularly in seats the place MPs abstained from or voted towards the SNP movement for a ceasefire in Gaza in November 2023.
For years, Labour has taken the help of Muslim voters without any consideration. Galloway’s win will definitely put stress on Starmer and the Labour celebration to take voters’ issues about Gaza critically. The lead to Rochdale might not point out extra electoral penalties for the celebration, nevertheless it does recommend ethical ones.
Parveen Akhtar has beforehand acquired funding from the British Academy and the Economic and Social Research Council.
Timothy Peace has acquired funding from the British Academy, the Economic and Social Research Council and the Royal Society of Edinburgh.