According to the 2021 census, 6.5% of the inhabitants in England and Wales establish as Muslim. In Rochdale, which has simply elected George Galloway to be its MP, the proportion of the inhabitants figuring out as Muslim is much greater – at 30.5%.
As is commonly the case in byelections, the turnout for the competition that elected Galloway was low. But Galloway acquired 12,335 votes in a constituency which comprises 34,871 Muslims. His marketing campaign centered nearly totally on the warfare in Gaza quite than native points, and though we don’t know what quantity of his vote was Muslim, it’s a honest assumption that a big proportion of it was.
The query within the wake of Galloway’s election (and one which the brand new MP is definitely encouraging) is whether or not this byelection has any implications for Labour within the normal election going down this yr?
Keir Starmer has argued that Galloway received as a result of the Labour candidate was sacked after repeating a conspiracy idea that Israel was behind the Hamas assault on October 7 final yr. Galloway, against this, argues that his victory is an indication that voters are about to show away from Labour of their droves as a result of they’re indignant about its failure to name for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Which of them is correct?
The Muslim vote
There are 20 constituencies within the UK which have an citizens comprised of greater than 30% Muslims. All of them elected a Labour MP in 2019. At the highest of the listing is Birmingham Hodge Hill, the place 62% of the inhabitants identifies as Muslim.
In Bradford West 59% of the inhabitants is Muslim, in Ilford South, 44%, and in Leicester South, 32%. Rochdale ranks 18th within the listing of the 20 constituencies with the most important proportion of Muslim residents. Interestingly sufficient, just below 19% of the citizens in Holborn and St Pancras, Keir Starmer’s constituency, identifies as Muslim.
There are at the moment 199 Labour MPs within the House of Commons – a slight discount from the 202 who have been elected in 2019. A naked majority within the House of Commons requires 326 MPs and a working majority extra like 346. The social gathering clearly has a mountain to climb to realize that, even with a lead of round 20% in present pollseurope-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#national-parliament-voting-intention).
So Starmer will definitely be asking whether or not Labour can nonetheless anticipate to win seats with a excessive proportion of Muslim voters in a approach that it has accomplished up to now, given what occurred in Rochdale. He continues to equivocate over the deaths in Gaza and nonetheless follows the federal government’s line on the battle, regardless of it being basically a colonial warfare.
Historically, Labour has had an extended custom of anti-colonialism. After the second world warfare, it was a Labour authorities that started the method of de-colonisation within the British empire by giving independence to India in 1947.
When is a secure seat not a secure seat?
There is an argument that constituencies with a excessive proportion of Muslims are comparatively secure Labour seats. This is evidenced by the truth that they remained within the Labour camp even when the social gathering suffered a heavy defeat in 2019. The implication is that if anger over Gaza is confined to Muslims, then it’s not going to have an effect on the variety of seats received by Labour very a lot.
However, concern about Gaza is shared by individuals apart from Muslims. Polling from YouGov performed final month exhibits that there was a definite shift in British public opinion concerning the warfare because it began. More individuals are calling for a ceasefire and fewer see Israel’s assaults on Gaza as being justified.
There is evident proof that youthful voters, particularly, really feel extra sympathy in the direction of the Palestinian trigger than the remainder of the inhabitants. This can also be a bunch that closely supported Labour within the 2019 election. While younger individuals on this group are unlikely to modify to voting Conservative over Gaza, the priority for Labour can be that they could abstain within the subsequent election.
How totally different religions vote
Starmer’s reluctance to name out what is going on in Gaza is a puzzle, since Muslims are overwhelmingly Labour supporters. This might be seen in knowledge from the British Election Study on-line panel survey performed after the 2019 normal election. The chart exhibits the connection between the non secular affiliation of the respondents and their voting behaviour in that election.
Religious Affiliation and Voting within the 2019 General Election:
How non secular identification maps onto social gathering desire.
British Election Study, CC BY-ND
The Church of England was once described because the “Tory social gathering at prayer” and it clearly stays so at the moment, since 64% of Church of England identifiers supported the Conservatives in comparison with simply 25% who supported Labour.
In distinction, Roman Catholics have been marginally extra Labour (42%) than Conservative (41%). Nonconformists have been just like Church of England identifiers with 48% Conservative and 25% Labour. Meanwhile, 43% of atheists and agnostics supported Labour and 34% the Conservatives.
Jewish voters favoured the Conservatives by a margin of 56% to 30% Labour. Finally, Muslim voters favoured Labour by a large 80% in contrast with the Conservative’s 13%.
If anger over the Gaza warfare is confined to Muslims it’s not more likely to affect the result of this yr’s election. But it’s value remembering that this isn’t the primary time Labour has been broken by occasions within the Middle East.
Support for Tony Blair was enormously weakened by his choice to invade Iraq in 2003 on the request of the then US president, George W. Bush. He has by no means actually lived down the status he acquired for this error.
There isn’t but proof that Labour’s place on Gaza will value it a majority within the election however the energy of feeling on this subject is rising and the longer term isn’t sure. With tons of of extra seats wanted, Starmer can’t afford to take any with no consideration. The danger of shedding these voters to the Conservatives is marginal however the danger of shedding them to apathy and disillusionment ought to have him reconsidering his place.
Paul Whiteley has acquired funding from the British Academy and the ESRC